November 2019 Only Slighter Higher than 2018

Approximate United States Firearms Sales (January 1999 to November 2019)

GREENVILLE, SC, USA & HALIFAX, NS, CANADA – -( Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) estimates November 2019 U.S. firearms sales at 1,423,869 units, a year-over-year increase of 1.4% from November 2018.

Likely single handgun sales (702,390) increased year-over-year by 9.2% whereas single long-gun sales (614,538) decreased year-over-year by 2.0%. All other likely background check-related sales (106,941) decreased year-over-year by 20.3%. This includes so-called “multiple” sales where the allocation between handguns and long-guns cannot be determined from the data record.

SAAF’s firearms unit sales estimates are based on raw data taken from the FBI’s National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS), adjusted for checks unlikely to be related to end-user firearms sales. For example, the FBI’s raw numbers (for November, some 2,545,863) cannot be taken at face value as very large numbers of background checks are unrelated to end-user sales. As a case in point, in November the state of Kentucky conducted over 360,000 so-called permit checks and rechecks alone whereas end-user checks at firearms retailers likely amounted to about 30,000 checks. SAAF makes certain other adjustments to the data based on retailer reports and other information; nonetheless, the estimates still likely understate the “true” number of unit sales.

SAAF Chief Economist Jurgen Brauer comments that “while FBI/NICS background checks for Black Friday were widely reported in the national media as ‘the second-largest in recorded history,’ the unit sales picture for the whole of November 2019 was less sensational. Black Friday has become Black November for many retailers, and Cyber Monday falls, this year, into the month of December so that the single-day focus appears less relevant than the monthly picture. For the year-to-date unit sales run at about 12.24 million units (January to November) as compared to last year’s 12.21 million units.”

Small Arms Analytics & ForecastingABOUT Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting:

Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting (SAAF) is a research consultancy focusing on the business & economics of the global small arms and ammunition markets. Politically unaffiliated, SAAF is an independent, evidenced-based resource for industry, advocacy, research, and policymaking alike, as well as for financial analysts and members of the media. Among other services, SAAF produces forecasts of U.S. civilian firearms unit sales, nationwide and for most states. Small Arms AnalyticsSM and Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting are legally protected Service Marks of Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting. (Contact salesΛ for sales and other information.)

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